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July 29, 2021
NewsChina moves to reassure international investors and banks after EdTech crackdown
China’s market watchdog, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), convened with representatives from global investment banks and investment firms on Wednesday evening in a bid to ease concerns after tough new restrictions on private education companies catalyzed a strong market sell-off. News of the meeting...
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July 28, 2021
NewsChina ramps up regulation: Investment Implications
Unexpected and transformative changes to the regulatory regime that governs China’s burgeoning private education industry have rattled markets, igniting a sell-off that spread beyond this sub-sector. For the moment, we have decided to maintain our exposure to China, believing there are attractive mid-to-long-term opportunities after...
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June 17, 2021
NewsWhat is China’s Belt and Road Initiative?
The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has been appearing more frequently in the press lately, with G7 nations expressing a desire to pursue their own international infrastructure projects, akin to China’s. While these are at the early stages of discussion, Beijing’s BRI ambitions are...
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June 2, 2021
NewsChina’s green intentions
China’s growth story and environmental sustainability are two prominent themes that are set to shape the investment landscape in the coming years. But these themes are not always mutually exclusive; junctions are emerging at which these two megatrends intersect. Recently, Beijing made serious commitments...
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May 17, 2021
NewsChina, the innovation hub of the 21st century
Over the last decade, China has distinguished itself as a rising star of global innovation. Shenzhen, the country’s first special economic zone, has emerged as a leading global technology hub on par with Silicon Valley. China has birthed its own FAMG-equivalents, with Tencent and Alibaba...
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April 28, 2021
NewsChina’s Growth Story: Capturing Opportunities
As the global economy heals from the coronavirus pandemic, one economy stands out as a trailblazer when it comes to virus containment, reopening and recovery: China. Amid a global recession, the country eked out positive growth of 2.3% last year and the IMF projects...
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August 4, 2020
NewsChina: Six stabilities, Six guarantees
Thus far, China is weathering the global recession better than most. With the IMF forecasting that all regions will experience negative growth this year, China is an outlier, with growth turning positive again in the second quarter (+11.5%, bringing growth in the first half to...
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December 10, 2018
NewsFrom South America to Southern Poland, China takes centre stage
Global markets showed some relief after the weekend’s G20 summit in Argentina concluded with a glimmer of hope for multilateralism. The world’s two superpowers, China and the US, who some have coined ‘the G2’ agreed a 90 day ceasefire after spending months on the brink...
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November 13, 2017
NewsChina moves towards opening up its financial sector
As we noted in a recent article about China’s One Belt One Road project, China’s President Xi Jinping is making decisive moves to position his country as a major global superpower. On Friday, China went one step further, scaling back ownership limitations which foreign investors...
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November 10, 2017
NewsChina’s 21st Century Silk Road Ambitions Enshrined in Constitution
The One Belt, One Road Initiative has been sewn into Communist Party constitution Initiative could develop much-needed infrastructure in developing nations, promote international trade, and support economic expansion in more than 60 countries Firms begin to weigh up opportunities During the 19th National Congress of...
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March 22, 2024
BilboardBILBoard April 2024 – Shifting sands in the investment landscape
The sands in the investment landscape have shifted in that it appears major central banks have tamed inflation without triggering a deep economic downturn. At the same time, market rate cut expectations have moderated, without disrupting markets. These developments, coupled with better-than-expected earnings results and...
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February 23, 2024
BilboardBILBoard March 2024 – Rate cut bets recede on brighter data
Spring is around the corner. The days are getting a little longer and brighter, while the cherry blossom tree in the BIL grounds is already in bloom. The latest economic data also has a Spring feeling about it. As the IMF wrote...
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January 23, 2024
BilboardBILBoard January 2024 – Are we there yet?
Economic overview The Fed and the ECB have concluded their hiking cycles. The easing cycle is likely to begin with the Fed (but later than March, as markets currently expect). The ECB has hinted that rate cuts could come in summer – much depends on...
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December 22, 2023
NewsBIL Investment Outlook 2024
Nothing but sun... and the grass which looks green? Our Investment Outlook for the year ahead is now available in English and French Introduction from our Group Chief Investment Officer, Lionel De Broux [caption id="attachment_8979" align="aligncenter" width="200"] Lionel De Broux, Group Chief...
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October 17, 2023
BilboardBILBoard October 2023 – Entry points and earnings
Written as at 13/10/23 Economic Overview Globally speaking, growth continues to slow as the impact of tighter financial conditions becomes apparent. That said, the transmission of monetary tightening has occurred at varying speeds across economies. Until now, US growth has held up remarkably well,...
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September 22, 2023
BilboardBILBoard September 2023: Peak rates in sight
While central banks could still make some final tweaks, most market participants now believe that we are at (or inches away from) the top when it comes to US and European rates. What is most important for investors now, is the shape of the peak...
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August 2, 2023
BilboardBILBoard August 2023 – Challenging resilience
The idea that central banks might be finished hiking rates is gaining prominence. In the US, the Federal Reserve has now hiked rates eleven times, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 5.25-5.50%, a 22-year high. Closer to home, the European Central Bank...
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July 24, 2023
NewsWhat’s weighing down the German economy and what does it mean for Europe?
Germany, the fourth largest economy in the world and the leading economic power in the European Union, began 2023 in recession. Given pale full-year growth prospects relative to other countries on the continent, the idea that Germany is once again the “sick man of Europe”...
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June 10, 2023
NewsBIL Midyear Outlook 2023
The Landing Process Introduction from our Group Chief Investment Officer, Lionel De Broux Our 2023 Investment Outlook, published back in December, was entitled “Preparing for landing”. As central banks tighten monetary policy to bring down inflation, the key question is whether they will...
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May 4, 2023
BilboardBILBoard May 2023 – Getting defensive
Lingering inflation is keeping major central banks in a tightening mode, even as macro headwinds gather. Expecting a choppy investment landscape in the coming quarters, we added a further layer of protection to our portfolios by implementing a bias towards defensive sectors. Macro View Looking...
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April 11, 2023
BilboardBILBoard April 2023: Following the fundamentals
Source: Bloomberg, BIL Recently, equity markets have had a spring in their step. The S&P 500 has eked out fresh multi-week highs, and is up 7.4% year-to-date. The Nasdaq is in a bull market having risen by over 20% in the first quarter. The EuroStoxx 600...
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April 3, 2023
NewsBiotechnology – on the brink of something big?
If the 19th century was characterised by breakthroughs in chemistry, and the 20th century by big leaps forward in physics, it appears that the 21st century will be all about biology, whereby we will vastly expand our capacities in reengineering biological systems to meet our...
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March 10, 2023
Weekly Investment Insights
Market Highlights • After Silicon Valley Bank-parent SVB Financial announced it had sold securities from its bond portfolio at a $1.8 billion loss, investors called into question just how much the securities banks own are worth if they are forced to sell, causing Financial...
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March 1, 2023
BilboardBILBoard March 2023: Strong data and sticky inflation
While the economy is slowing, it is proving more resilient than initially expected. At the same time, inflation remains uncomfortably high, supporting the case for sustained central bank tightening. This has caused a risk-off mood in markets with some participants beginning to consider a stagflation...
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January 31, 2023
BilboardBILBoard February 2023: Looking East
PDF EN FR DE LU NL At our first Asset Allocation committee of the year, we maintained a conservative approach, emphasising high-quality corporate bonds and an underweight stance on risk assets while we await better visibility on the path of monetary...
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December 12, 2022
NewsMonday Briefing – 12 December 2022
Highlights The rally that began mid-October stalled last week as financial markets were driven by a risk-off bias on growing concerns about a potential recession. The S&P 500 Index recorded its worst return in five weeks and was unable to stay above its 200-day...
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December 5, 2022
NewsMonday Briefing – 5 December 2022
Highlights The highlight of last week was definitely Fed Chair Powell's speech which cemented expectations that the Fed will move away from the 75bp hikes pursued at the last four meetings in favour of a slower 50bp pace. Relief also came from the Euro Area...
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November 28, 2022
NewsMonday Briefing – 28 November 2022
Highlights Stocks provided another decent rally, confirming the current uptrend of higher highs and higher lows. The European Stoxx600 index was able to deliver a sixth consecutive weekly gain, the longest winning streak in a year, while the S&P 500 Index finished above the 4,000...
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November 14, 2022
NewsMonday Briefing – 14 November 2022
Highlights Major equity indices recorded strong gains and bond yields fell sharply last week as investors breathed a collective sigh of relief after a reassuring inflation print in the US. The S&P 500 Index recorded its best week since June and hit its best intraday...
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October 19, 2022
NewsBILBoard October 2022 – Fall season
EN FR DE LU NL Leaves are falling, growth projections are falling and equity prices have been falling too. However, the latter might have further to fall. Markets have not yet found a bottom, and in order to do...
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October 10, 2022
NewsMonday Briefing – 10th October 2022
Highlights Financial markets reversed mood and kicked off the new quarter on an upbeat note with the S&P500 logging its biggest two-day rise since April 2020 before surrendering most of those gains later in the week on the back of a strong jobs report....
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September 19, 2022
NewsMonday Briefing – 19th September 2022
The optimism that was baked into equity markets evaporated on Tuesday last week with the peak inflation narrative being repriced violently towards a tightening cycle that potentially lasts longer and ends higher. The repricing of monetary policy in the US was substantial with the Fed’s...
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BILBoard September 2022 – Higher for longer
French Version: BILBOARD_FR_SEPT_22 German Version: BILBOARD_DE_SEPT_22 Dutch Version BILBOARD_NL_SEPT_22 English PDF Version BILBOARD_EN_SEPT_22 Luxembourgish PDF Version BILBOARD_LU_SEPT_22 In our July BILBoard, we discussed two competing narratives responsible for driving market sentiment throughout the best part of 2022: one focused on durably...
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August 29, 2022
NewsMonday Briefing – 29th August 2022
Highlights The long-awaited Powell testimony at Jackson Hole created havoc on equity markets with most remarks skewed in a hawkish direction as the Fed sought to prevent inflation expectations from de-anchoring. All eyes are now on the employment and inflation reports to be released...
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August 1, 2022
NewsMonday Briefing – 1st August 2022
Highlights Equities on both sides of the Atlantic ended the week higher. In the US, this was despite another 75bp hike from the Fed and data showing that the economy contracted 0.9% in Q2; a “bad news is good news” mood has taken hold,...
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July 25, 2022
NewsMonday Briefing – 25th July 2022
Highlights Stocks were resilient on both sides of the Atlantic last week, despite discouraging macro data and a larger-than-expected 50 basis point hike from the ECB, ended the era of negative Eurozone interest rates in one go. Weak economic data pushed the yield on...
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July 18, 2022
NewsMonday Briefing – 18th July 2022
Highlights Most equity markets rallied into the weekend, but the bounce was not enough to keep the major indexes out of negative territory for the week. Oil prices fell to levels unseen since before the conflict in Ukraine and the euro broke below parity with...
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July 11, 2022
NewsMonday Briefing – 11th July 2022
Highlights Equity indices bounced back last week, starting July in a buoyant mood, even while market participants seem confused as to how to price fixed income. Concerns about a European energy crisis left the Euro at its weakest level against the US Dollar since 2002,...
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July 8, 2022
BilboardBILBoard July 2022 – Competing narratives
The market is oscillating between two competing narratives – one focused on durably higher inflation and the other on the growing risk of recession. Stubbornly high inflation means that, for now, central bank hawks still have the upper hand – but for how long is...
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July 1, 2022
NewsGlobotics – the future of services?
This week played host to the ECB’s annual central banking forum in Sintra, Portugal. The umbrella-theme of this year’s gathering was ‘challenges for monetary policy in a rapidly changing world’. While markets watched attentively for clues about the ECB’s near-term monetary policy intentions, for those...
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June 27, 2022
NewsMonday Briefing – 27th June 2022
Highlights Fears about imminent recession dominated financial markets with investors evaluating economic threats and scaling back expectations about inflation and interest-rate hikes. This drove a sovereign bond rally and helped equities snap a three-week losing streak, while recession worries also weighed on commodity prices. Last...
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June 20, 2022
NewsMonday Briefing – 20th June 2022
Highlights It was another wild week on financial markets, with global equities falling sharply on recession fears and the decisions by the Fed, Swiss National Bank (SNB) and the Bank of England (BoE) adding to the hawkish drumbeat that much higher rates are in the...
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June 13, 2022
NewsMonday Briefing – 13th June 2022
Highlights Equity markets finished the week with steep losses following a larger-than-expected hike from the Australian central bank, hawkish posturing from the ECB, and a very strong US CPI print. These factors catalysed strong risk-off sentiment and the unwinding of some of the trades entered...
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May 30, 2022
NewsMonday Briefing – 30th May 2022
Highlights Equity markets logged strong gains last week, with the S&P 500 notching its first weekly gain Since April 1st, and the Dow recording its first in nine weeks, challenging the view that the US economy is on a one-way road to recession Upbeat forecasts...
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May 23, 2022
NewsMonday Briefing – 23rd May 2022
Highlights Stocks took another beating last week with Wall Street’s equity benchmark posting its biggest single-day drop since June 2020 on Wednesday amid growing concern that high inflation is cutting into corporate profit margins. The week delivered the 7th consecutive weekly decline for the...
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May 10, 2022
NewsMonday Briefing – 9th May 2022
Highlights Last week’s daily stock market swings included both the largest daily gain and daily decline of the year, with investors frightened that inflation will spiral out of hand even with central banks raising policy rates and signaling more hikes. Fed policymakers announced a 50bp...
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May 5, 2022
NewsFor the US Fed, 50 is the new 25
Yesterday evening, the Fed announced its biggest rate hike since 2000; a 50bp increase, bringing the target range to 0.75%-1% as it works to get US inflation under control. After a 25bp hike in March, the US central bank's policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)...
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May 3, 2022
NewsMonday Briefing – 2nd May 2022
Highlights Equity markets remained choppy last week with US stocks revisiting the lows of this year's trading range on the perspective of weaker global growth and geopolitical uncertainty. The S&P 500 Index again moved into correction territory, while the technology-heavy Nasdaq and small-cap Russell 2000...
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April 25, 2022
NewsMonday Briefing – 25th April 2022
Highlights Shorter-dated Treasury yields continued to surge after Fed policymakers again struck a hawkish tone in public comments. Investors are now betting on half-point rate increases in May, June and possibly July. Among Fed officials, St Louis Fed President James Bullard fired the loudest salvo,...
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April 11, 2022
NewsMonday Briefing – 11th April 2022
Highlights It was another rough week on bond markets: US Treasuries extended losses, with yields on the 10-year hitting above 2.70% and the 2-year climbing above 2.50%. Major US equity indices finished down for the week, with sector performance wildly divergent: typically defensive consumer...
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