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February 3, 2025

Weekly Insights

Weekly Investment Insights

By Friday, it seemed as though a volatile week for stocks had ended on a positive note. The damage caused after Chinese AI app DeepSeek hit the financial markets like a cannonball, was quite quickly mended, with the NASDAQ 100 having recovered losses by the...

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January 27, 2025

Weekly Insights

Weekly Investment Insights

  Last week, world leaders gathered in Davos for the annual five-day meeting of the World Economic Forum. On the agenda were geopolitics, US-EU-China relations, climate and energy, the global economic outlook and much more. But what made the headlines was a little further away...

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January 23, 2025

BILBoardNews

BILBoard January 2025 – Snakes and ladders

While western New Year celebrations are already behind us, January 29th will usher in the Chinese New Year of the Snake. People belonging to that year are said to be intelligent and intuitive, with refined taste. They are considered creative and extremely diligent. For investors,...

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January 20, 2025

Weekly Insights

Weekly Investment Insights

  Donald Trump takes office for the second time this week and the new administration is sure to have a major impact on the economy both at home and abroad. Guessing games as to how fast and furious tariffs will be have been tangibly impacting...

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January 13, 2025

Weekly Insights

Weekly Investment Insights

  Looking back on 2024, it was a year marked by conflict and political uncertainty, but it also saw major advances in space exploration, the AI revolution making further inroads into our daily lives, and rising stock markets. After the final closing bell, major market...

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December 27, 2024

News

BIL Investment Outlook 2025 – Tides of change

  Introduction from our Group Chief Investment Officer, Lionel De Broux       As the oldest private bank in Luxembourg, we’ve been managing clients’ wealth for generations, and we know that the best things are built over time. This belief seeps down into our...

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December 20, 2024

Weekly Insights

Weekly Investment Insights

  Having spent ten straight days decked out in red, the Dow Jones Industrial Average index recorded is longest losing streak since 1974. Other global market indices turned crimson too on Wednesday, after the Fed signaled fewer rate cuts next year. But all’s well that...

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December 13, 2024

Weekly Insights

Weekly Investment Insights

  It has been a big week for France, with Notre Dame finally reopening after five years of reconstruction, and Francois Bayrou being named France’s fourth Prime Minister of the year. Bayrou has received a lukewarm welcome and will now have to take on the...

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December 9, 2024

Weekly Insights

Weekly Investment Insights

  December is here, and while the cold, dark days may not be everyone's cup of cocoa, the festive spirit is starting to set in. In Luxembourg, the holiday season kicked off last week with Kleeschen, when children woke up to find chocolate treats in...

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November 25, 2024

Weekly Insights

Weekly Investment Insights

  After last week's disappointing Eurozone economic data, another ECB rate cut in December is high on the wish list for Europe, with investors increasing the probability of a 50 basis point cut. The euro fell to its lowest level in two years on the...

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November 22, 2024

BILBoard

BILBoard December 2024 – Red Sweep

    At BIL, we are long-term investors guided by stable, strategic asset allocation guidelines. However, our investment strategy itself is a living, breathing thing, proactively adapted over time, as we strive to deliver long-run performance for our clients. Certain times call for more adjustments...

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November 18, 2024

Weekly Insights

Weekly Investment Insights

  Less than two weeks after the US Presidential election, Trump has made significant progress in nominations for top government posts, leading to some market volatility. The Republicans have defeated the Democrats in the race for a majority in the House of Representatives, making this...

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November 8, 2024

Weekly Insights

Weekly Investment Insights

  Last week, the result of the US Presidential election was finally announced, with Donald Trump elected as the President of the United States for the second time. Even before all the votes were counted, bitcoin and US bond yields jumped, and the dollar surged...

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October 25, 2024

Weekly Insights

Weekly Investment Insights

  Global trade has been a hot topic over the past week as the US election draws closer, and as Trump appeared to top polls in what is a very tight election race. Economists around the world are apprehensive about a potential trade war should...

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October 21, 2024

Weekly Insights

Weekly Investment Insights

  During the autumn months, bears all over the world prepare for their winter hibernation. The market bears appear to already be asleep, with the current bull market broadening out last week, as evidenced by the fact that the Russell 2000 (which measures the performance...

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October 15, 2024

BILBoard

BILBoard November 2024 – Beyond the US election

  The race for the US Presidential election on November 5 is heating up, but business activity is essentially frozen given the uncertain outcome and the vastly different programs of the two candidates. With stability forming an integral pillar of our investment philosophy, we do...

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October 11, 2024

Weekly Insights

Weekly Investment Insights

  Hurricanes caused widespread damage last week. In the US, Florida residents rushed to evacuate ahead of Hurricane Milton, which followed closely on the heels of Hurricane Helene, which hit the southeastern US at the end of September. Hurricane Helene is estimated to have caused...

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October 4, 2024

Weekly Insights

Weekly Investment Insights

  Comments from central bankers toyed with both currencies and rate markets over the past week. The Fed Chair Powell said that the US central bank is in no hurry to cut rates, and that the goal is to adjust monetary policy “over time towards...

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September 30, 2024

Weekly Insights

Weekly Investment Insights

Autumn is in full swing and with the change of season came a turnabout announcement that was noticed in all corners of the market. Beijing’s stimulus roll-out last week brought Chinese stocks on an impressive upward journey, recording their best week since 2008, with many...

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September 30, 2024

BILBoard

BILBoard October 2024 – Harvest season

Executive Summary As autumn approached, we saw increased volatility on capital markets. Bad days were swiftly followed by significant rallies, and like the leaves currently on the trees, we had a varying mix of red, green, and amber on our screens. For the month of...

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August 28, 2024

BILBoard

BILBoard September 2024 – The stars align for September rate cuts

August brought sky gazers a rare blue supermoon; the next won’t occur until 2037. It also brought what will hopefully prove to be a once-in-a-blue-moon market selloff, amid a perfect storm of catalysts. But while the skies darkened over markets, it became increasingly clear that...

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June 21, 2024

BILBoard

BILBoard – Summer 2024

Despite tight monetary conditions, the global economy held up remarkably well throughout the first half of 2024. From this point on, it appears to be regaining momentum and the onset of policy easing might provide an additional boost. Up to now, decent earnings growth and...

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June 3, 2024

News

European energy – everything under control?

Prior to the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the lion’s share of Europe’s energy imports came from Russia. It accounted for 28% of the continent’s total crude oil imports, while Russian pipelines delivered 44% of all imported gas. The outbreak of war and the...

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May 24, 2024

BILBoard

BILBoard June 2024 – Time for equity investors to embark on a European tour?

  A study has found that, this summer, Americans wishing to see Taylor Swift’s record-breaking Eras Tour might be better off coming to Europe to do so. With US inflation still uncomfortably above target and the Federal Reserve’s higher-for-even-longer stance boosting the dollar, in some...

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March 22, 2024

BILBoard

BILBoard April 2024 – Shifting sands in the investment landscape

The sands in the investment landscape have shifted in that it appears major central banks have tamed inflation without triggering a deep economic downturn. At the same time, market rate cut expectations have moderated, without disrupting markets. These developments, coupled with better-than-expected earnings results and...

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February 23, 2024

BILBoard

BILBoard March 2024 – Rate cut bets recede on brighter data

      Spring is around the corner. The days are getting a little longer and brighter, while the cherry blossom tree in the BIL grounds is already in bloom. The latest economic data also has a Spring feeling about it. As the IMF wrote...

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January 23, 2024

BILBoard

BILBoard January 2024 – Are we there yet?

Economic overview The Fed and the ECB have concluded their hiking cycles. The easing cycle is likely to begin with the Fed (but later than March, as markets currently expect). The ECB has hinted that rate cuts could come in summer – much depends on...

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December 22, 2023

News

BIL Investment Outlook 2024

Nothing but sun... and the grass which looks green? Our Investment Outlook for the year ahead is now available in English and French     Introduction from our Group Chief Investment Officer, Lionel De Broux   [caption id="attachment_8979" align="aligncenter" width="200"] Lionel De Broux, Group Chief...

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October 17, 2023

BILBoard

BILBoard October 2023 – Entry points and earnings

Written as at 13/10/23   Economic Overview Globally speaking, growth continues to slow as the impact of tighter financial conditions becomes apparent. That said, the transmission of monetary tightening has occurred at varying speeds across economies. Until now, US growth has held up remarkably well,...

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September 22, 2023

BILBoard

BILBoard September 2023: Peak rates in sight

While central banks could still make some final tweaks, most market participants now believe that we are at (or inches away from) the top when it comes to US and European rates. What is most important for investors now, is the shape of the peak...

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August 2, 2023

BILBoard

BILBoard August 2023 – Challenging resilience

The idea that central banks might be finished hiking rates is gaining prominence. In the US, the Federal Reserve has now hiked rates eleven times, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 5.25-5.50%, a 22-year high. Closer to home, the European Central Bank...

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July 24, 2023

News

What’s weighing down the German economy and what does it mean for Europe?

Germany, the fourth largest economy in the world and the leading economic power in the European Union, began 2023 in recession. Given pale full-year growth prospects relative to other countries on the continent, the idea that Germany is once again the “sick man of Europe”...

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June 10, 2023

News

BIL Midyear Outlook 2023

The Landing Process Introduction from our Group Chief Investment Officer, Lionel De Broux     Our 2023 Investment Outlook, published back in December, was entitled “Preparing for landing”. As central banks tighten monetary policy to bring down inflation, the key question is whether they will...

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May 4, 2023

BILBoard

BILBoard May 2023 – Getting defensive

Lingering inflation is keeping major central banks in a tightening mode, even as macro headwinds gather. Expecting a choppy investment landscape in the coming quarters, we added a further layer of protection to our portfolios by implementing a bias towards defensive sectors. Macro View Looking...

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April 11, 2023

BILBoard

BILBoard April 2023: Following the fundamentals

Source: Bloomberg, BIL Recently, equity markets have had a spring in their step. The S&P 500 has eked out fresh multi-week highs, and is up 7.4% year-to-date. The Nasdaq is in a bull market having risen by over 20% in the first quarter. The EuroStoxx 600...

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April 3, 2023

News

Biotechnology – on the brink of something big?

If the 19th century was characterised by breakthroughs in chemistry, and the 20th century by big leaps forward in physics, it appears that the 21st century will be all about biology, whereby we will vastly expand our capacities in reengineering biological systems to meet our...

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March 10, 2023

Weekly Investment Insights

  Market Highlights •   After Silicon Valley Bank-parent SVB Financial announced it had sold securities from its bond portfolio at a $1.8 billion loss, investors called into question just how much the securities banks own are worth if they are forced to sell, causing Financial...

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March 1, 2023

BILBoard

BILBoard March 2023: Strong data and sticky inflation

While the economy is slowing, it is proving more resilient than initially expected. At the same time, inflation remains uncomfortably high, supporting the case for sustained central bank tightening. This has caused a risk-off mood in markets with some participants beginning to consider a stagflation...

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January 31, 2023

BILBoard

BILBoard February 2023: Looking East

PDF EN    FR    DE    LU    NL At our first Asset Allocation committee of the year, we maintained a conservative approach, emphasising high-quality corporate bonds and an underweight stance on risk assets while we await better visibility on the path of monetary...

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December 12, 2022

News

Monday Briefing – 12 December 2022

Highlights   The rally that began mid-October stalled last week as financial markets were driven by a risk-off bias on growing concerns about a potential recession. The S&P 500 Index recorded its worst return in five weeks and was unable to stay above its 200-day...

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December 5, 2022

News

Monday Briefing – 5 December 2022

Highlights The highlight of last week was definitely Fed Chair Powell's speech which cemented expectations that the Fed will move away from the 75bp hikes pursued at the last four meetings in favour of a slower 50bp pace. Relief also came from the Euro Area...

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November 28, 2022

News

Monday Briefing – 28 November 2022

Highlights Stocks provided another decent rally, confirming the current uptrend of higher highs and higher lows. The European Stoxx600 index was able to deliver a sixth consecutive weekly gain, the longest winning streak in a year, while the S&P 500 Index finished above the 4,000...

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November 14, 2022

News

Monday Briefing – 14 November 2022

Highlights Major equity indices recorded strong gains and bond yields fell sharply last week as investors breathed a collective sigh of relief after a reassuring  inflation print in the US. The S&P 500 Index recorded its best week since June and hit its best intraday...

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October 19, 2022

News

BILBoard October 2022 – Fall season

EN      FR    DE      LU     NL Leaves are falling, growth projections are falling and equity prices have been falling too. However, the latter might have further to fall. Markets have not yet found a bottom, and in order to do...

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October 10, 2022

News

Monday Briefing – 10th October 2022

Highlights   Financial markets reversed mood and kicked off the new quarter on an upbeat note with the S&P500 logging its biggest two-day rise since April 2020 before surrendering most of those gains later in the week on the back of a strong jobs report....

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September 19, 2022

News

Monday Briefing – 19th September 2022

The optimism that was baked into equity markets evaporated on Tuesday last week with the peak inflation narrative being repriced violently towards a tightening cycle that potentially lasts longer and ends higher. The repricing of monetary policy in the US was substantial with the Fed’s...

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September 9, 2022

BILBoardNews

BILBoard September 2022 – Higher for longer

French Version: BILBOARD_FR_SEPT_22    German Version: BILBOARD_DE_SEPT_22    Dutch Version BILBOARD_NL_SEPT_22      English PDF Version BILBOARD_EN_SEPT_22      Luxembourgish PDF Version BILBOARD_LU_SEPT_22 In our July BILBoard, we discussed two competing narratives responsible for driving market sentiment throughout the best part of 2022: one focused on durably...

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August 29, 2022

News

Monday Briefing – 29th August 2022

Highlights   The long-awaited Powell testimony at Jackson Hole created havoc on equity markets with most remarks skewed in a hawkish direction as the Fed sought to prevent inflation expectations from de-anchoring. All eyes are now on the employment and inflation reports to be released...

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August 1, 2022

News

Monday Briefing – 1st August 2022

  Highlights Equities on both sides of the Atlantic ended the week higher. In the US, this was despite another 75bp hike from the Fed and data showing that the economy contracted 0.9% in Q2; a “bad news is good news” mood has taken hold,...

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July 25, 2022

News

Monday Briefing – 25th July 2022

Highlights   Stocks were resilient on both sides of the Atlantic last week, despite discouraging macro data and a larger-than-expected 50 basis point hike from the ECB, ended the era of negative Eurozone interest rates in one go. Weak economic data pushed the yield on...

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