Research

Menu

Back

Choose Language

March 7, 2023

News

Value vs. Growth: Reshuffling the deck

Value investing typically means looking past glitzy, high-flying names to consider “unloved” companies with less hype. Value stocks tend to trade at a discount to fundamental metrics such as book value, earnings, sales or dividends. In contrast to Value stocks, Growth stocks are equities of companies with strong anticipated growth potential.

In the past, Growth stocks were synonymous with the so-called “FAANGs” and other household tech names, but this might no longer by entirely correct. Similarly, it seems the knee jerk reaction to classify energy stocks as Value plays may no longer be fully accurate either…

Following a tumultuous 2022, a significant shuffle between the Pure Growth and Value indices has been observed, reflecting earnings and valuation shifts over the past year.

The Pure Value Index (SPXPV) has decreased from 119 to 85 members, while the Pure Growth Index (SPXPG) has grown from 58 to 73. This reshuffle is particularly noticeable at the sector level.

In the Pure Growth index, comprised of companies whose earnings are expected to grow rapidly in the future, fossil fuel firms have entered the fray. Exxon Mobil and Chevron are the best examples. Despite an urgent need to address global warming, which could impair the long-term viability of their sector, they both reported record profits for last year. Considering the entire energy sector, during what was a catastrophic year for financial markets, against the backdrop of the European energy crunch it provided returns of almost 60%. The S&P 500 fell by over 18%.

At the same time, large-cap tech companies stumbled, for both idiosyncratic and systemic reasons. The stay-at-home phase of Covid-19 played a major role in increasing the sales of tech firms and thus their profits in 2020 and 2021. However, the stage was set for a decline in their growth rates in 2022 with the “great reopening” and the subsequent economic recovery. Adding salt to the wound, the rise in interest rates dictated by central bankers as they attempt to contain inflation, has particularly hit the stock prices of tech companies as they rely heavily on the promise of sales and profits further out in the future (which are now subject to higher discount rates in present value calculations). As a consequence, Alphabet and some other tech behemoths have fallen out of the Pure Growth index.

What we have witnessed is a significant weakening in the tech-growth and energy-value connection. During 2022, technology's weight in Pure Growth fell to 13% (its lowest share since 2014), from about 36%, while energy has jumped to 29% (the highest since at least 2005), from 8%. Also worth noting, is the fact that within the Pure Value index, the weight of the Discretionary sector has increased from 11% to 17%.

These observations can be seen as some representative consequences of how much the world and its financial markets have changed following the Covid-19 pandemic and the onset of the war in Ukraine.

Disclaimer

All financial data and/or economic information released by this Publication (the “Publication”); (the “Data” or the “Financial data and/or economic information”), are provided for information purposes only, without warranty of any kind, including without limitation the warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose or warranties and non-infringement of any patent, intellectual property or proprietary rights of any party, and are not intended for trading purposes. Banque Internationale à Luxembourg SA (the “Bank”) does not guarantee expressly or impliedly, the sequence, accuracy, adequacy, legality, completeness, reliability, usefulness or timeless of any Data. All Financial data and/or economic information provided may be delayed or may contain errors or be incomplete. This disclaimer applies to both isolated and aggregate uses of the Data. All Data is provided on an “as is” basis. None of the Financial data and/or economic information contained on this Publication constitutes a solicitation, offer, opinion, or recommendation, a guarantee of results, nor a solicitation by the Bank of an offer to buy or sell any security, products and services mentioned into it or to make investments. Moreover, none of the Financial data and/or economic information contained on this Publication provides legal, tax accounting, financial or investment advice or services regarding the profitability or suitability of any security or investment. This Publication has not been prepared with the aim to take an investor’s particular investment objectives, financial position or needs into account. It is up to the investor himself to consider whether the Data contained herein this Publication is appropriate to his needs, financial position and objectives or to seek professional independent advice before making an investment decision based upon the Data. No investment decision whatsoever may result from solely reading this document. In order to read and understand the Financial data and/or economic information included in this document, you will need to have knowledge and experience of financial markets. If this is not the case, please contact your relationship manager. This Publication is prepared by the Bank and is based on data available to the public and upon information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate, taken from stock exchanges and third parties. The Bank, including its parent,- subsidiary or affiliate entities, agents, directors, officers, employees, representatives or suppliers, shall not, directly or indirectly, be liable, in any way, for any: inaccuracies or errors in or omissions from the Financial data and/or economic information, including but not limited to financial data regardless of the cause of such or for any investment decision made, action taken, or action not taken of whatever nature in reliance upon any Data provided herein, nor for any loss or damage, direct or indirect, special or consequential, arising from any use of this Publication or of its content. This Publication is only valid at the moment of its editing, unless otherwise specified. All Financial data and/or economic information contained herein can also quickly become out-of- date. All Data is subject to change without notice and may not be incorporated in any new version of this Publication. The Bank has no obligation to update this Publication upon the availability of new data, the occurrence of new events and/or other evolutions. Before making an investment decision, the investor must read carefully the terms and conditions of the documentation relating to the specific products or services. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. Products or services described in this Publication may not be available in all countries and may be subject to restrictions in some persons or in some countries. No part of this Publication may be reproduced, distributed, modified, linked to or used for any public or commercial purpose without the prior written consent of the Bank. In any case, all Financial data and/or economic information provided on this Publication are not intended for use by, or distribution to, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such use or distribution would be contrary to law and/or regulation. If you have obtained this Publication from a source other than the Bank website, be aware that electronic documentation can be altered subsequent to original distribution.

As economic conditions are subject to change, the information and opinions presented in this outlook are current only as of the date indicated in the matrix or the publication date. This publication is based on data available to the public and upon information that is considered as reliable. Even if particular attention has been paid to its content, no guarantee, warranty or representation is given to the accuracy or completeness thereof. Banque Internationale à Luxembourg cannot be held liable or responsible with respect to the information expressed herein. This document has been prepared only for information purposes and does not constitute an offer or invitation to make investments. It is up to investors themselves to consider whether the information contained herein is appropriate to their needs and objectives or to seek advice before making an investment decision based upon this information. Banque Internationale à Luxembourg accepts no liability whatsoever for any investment decisions of whatever nature by the user of this publication, which are in any way based on this publication, nor for any loss or damage arising from any use of this publication or its content. This publication, prepared by Banque Internationale à Luxembourg (BIL), may not be copied or duplicated in any form whatsoever or redistributed without the prior written consent of BIL 69, route d’Esch ı L-2953 Luxembourg ı RCS Luxembourg B-6307 ı Tel. +352 4590 6699 ı www.bil.com.

Read more


More

September 30, 2024

BILBoard

BILBoard October 2024 – Harvest season

Executive Summary As autumn approached, we saw increased volatility on capital markets. Bad days were swiftly followed by significant rallies, and like the leaves currently...

September 23, 2024

Weekly insight

Weekly Investment Insights

Last week, we had the news that the iconic brand Tupperware had filed for bankruptcy. So dominant was the company in its heyday that when...

September 9, 2024

News

What lies behind recent trends in the...

At 6.4%, the Eurozone unemployment rate currently sits at its all-time low, but the picture varies from country to country. Labour market trends will influence...

August 28, 2024

BILBoard

BILBoard September 2024 – The stars a...

August brought sky gazers a rare blue supermoon; the next won’t occur until 2037. It also brought what will hopefully prove to be a once-in-a-blue-moon...

August 14, 2024

News

Taking stock on the recent market sel...

Following the market meltdown that occurred at the beginning of August, we wanted to provide a recap of events for our clients and outline how...

All articles