Choose Language

December 12, 2022


Monday Briefing – 12 December 2022


  • The rally that began mid-October stalled last week as financial markets were driven by a risk-off bias on growing concerns about a potential recession.
  • The S&P 500 Index recorded its worst return in five weeks and was unable to stay above its 200-day moving average.
  • The notable exception came from Chinese stocks, spurred by the prospects of reduced Covid-19 restrictions.
  • Financials were in the spotlight as several bank executives offered recession warnings, while Credit Suisse completed its latest rights offering, the first milestone on its restructuring path.
  • US PPI figures surprised moderately to the upside, rising 7.4% on a year-over-year basis versus consensus expectations of around 7.2%. US CPI this Tuesday will offer a catalyst for renewed market swings as investors parse the data through the lens of Fed policy implications.
  • Revised data showed that the eurozone economy expanded 0.3% sequentially in the third quarter, up from a first estimate of 0.2%.
  • The central bank governor of Ireland and the governor of the Bank of France added their voices to growing support among ECB policymakers for a half-percentage-point rate increase this month, which would take the deposit rate to 2%.
  • US 10-year Treasury yields touched 3-month lows but ended the week roughly unchanged. Further yield curve inversion demonstrated that the bond market is coming around the idea of a harder economic landing.
  • The downward trajectory of the oil price continued, leaving it at its lowest levels of the year so far. This is despite a brief surge in prices after the Keystone US oil pipeline was shut following a leak and despite signs of China’s reopening,
  • China’s producer price inflation was negative in November, and the consumer price inflation rate slowed, with year-on-year CPI down to +1.6%, from +2.1% in October, offering policymakers more space to stimulate the economy if required.
  • Those hoping to ease into the holiday season will have to at least wait for the end of this week, as investors will have to digest a packed calendar of events, including the Fed, the BoE, and ECB decisions. In all three cases, consensus expect a step down in the size of rate hikes to 50 basis points, from 75 bps.


November 21, 2023


What’s taking the wind from the renew...

The Copernicus Climate Change service reports that October 2023 was the warmest October on record. The same can be said for July, August, and September...

November 13, 2023


US consumer sentiment slips amid Midd...

The usual weekly newsletter had already “gone to print” last Friday before the release of the University of Michigan’s US consumer sentiment index, so a...

October 17, 2023


BILBoard October 2023 – Entry p...

Written as at 13/10/23   Economic Overview Globally speaking, growth continues to slow as the impact of tighter financial conditions becomes apparent. That said, the...

September 22, 2023


BILBoard September 2023: Peak rates i...

While central banks could still make some final tweaks, most market participants now believe that we are at (or inches away from) the top when...

August 2, 2023


BILBoard August 2023 – Challenging re...

The idea that central banks might be finished hiking rates is gaining prominence. In the US, the Federal Reserve has now hiked rates eleven times,...

All articles